Wind to sink 40% under Coalition options
Source: Climate Spectator, 9th April 2014
Australian large-scale renewable generation is likely to be 40 per cent lower in 2020 on the repeal of the carbon tax and revisions to the Renewable Energy Target, while the resulting market conditions are likely to bring relief for black coal generation, according to a new report by energy and environmental market analysts, RepuTex.
RepuTex analysed the impact of repealing the Carbon Price Mechanism (CPM) and the introduction of a reduced Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 20 per cent by 2020 (down from a fixed target of 41,000 GWh by 2020) on the National Electricity Market (NEM), with findings indicating that an ill wind is blowing for renewable generation.
According to RepuTex, should both policy changes be implemented, large-scale renewable generation in 2020 would fall from 41,000 GWh under the existing Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET), to 24,600 GWh – a reduction of 40 per cent.
While growth in wind development is forecast to fall, black coal fired generation would benefit from the change in policy, increasing output by 9 per cent – or 13 GWh – by 2020 if market conditions return to pre-carbon tax levels.
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