About $4 billion in private funding would be sucked from Australia's solar power and renewable energy industries over the next three years if the Coalition wins government, confidential data obtained from banks and financial analysts shows.


The Coalition's climate change plan is also about $4 billion short of the funding required to meet its pledge for a 5 per cent cut in greenhouse emissions by 2020, and is instead on track for a 9 per cent increase by then, according to analysis commissioned by the independent think tank The Climate Institute.


Although the Coalition rejects that analysis, major investors are planning for the impact if Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wins power and axes the carbon price and dismantles the clean energy finance system. They expect about $4.1 billion in private funding would be directed away from large-scale renewable power - starving the sector of capital - due to regulatory uncertainty and a lack of solid returns.


''Under this scenario, the winners are probably going to be the gas guys and the wind guys - you will see a charge towards getting lots and lots of wind farms up at lowest cost because you have still got to meet the [renewable energy target],'' a source within the sector said. ''It's going to change the shape of the industry.''